1. (P10-46) A plant engineering group needs to set up an assembly line to produce a new product. The

1. (P10-46) A plant engineering group needs to set up an assembly line to produce a new product. The following table describes the relationships between the activities that need to be completed for this product to be manufactured: Activity Days Immediate Predecessors a m b A 3 6 8 B 5 8 10 A C 5 6 8 A D 1 2 4 B, C E 7 11 17 D F 7 9 12 D G 6 8 9 D H 3 4 7 F, G I 3 5 7 E, F, H Assume that each activity time is normally distributed with expected time and standard deviation computed as shown in equations 7-6 and 7-8, respectively, on page 283. Round off all activity times to two decimal places. a) Use a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability that the project will finish in 37 days or less. b) Use a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability that the project will take more than 32 days. This needs to be in excel with the formulas. Look at the video on how to download and install crystal ball. Conduct MC simulation using crystal Ball. Show a network diagram and show the formulas for mean and variance

Activity	Days			Immediate Predecessors
	a	m	b
A	3	6	8
B	5	8	10	A
C	5	6	8	A
D	1	2	4	B, C
E	7	11	17	D
F	7	9	12	D
G	6	8	9	D
H	3	4	7	F, G
I	3	5	7	E, F, H

 

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